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// SPX daily closed underneath the cloud. It reduces the real GDP. B. He has fleets of aircraft. CCP officials even continue to shut down factories in China and place them elsewhere. The possible ban on CCP members immigrating to America could push them elsewhere or disbar them from purchasing. I feel your pain Joe on property taxes, fees, insurance, etc. Central Banks Michael-other than it’s hard enough now to effectively teach arithmetic and then ‘math’ematics to the public (they are not the same, current popular usage of the terms notwithstanding), it makes the case for statistics and their real-world meanings to be presented effectively, and as early as possible. The dollar is making a bottom here perhaps. You can donate. Credit Bubble I suspect the Chinese government cares very little about the little people economically- except to keep civil unrest at bay. The BEA provides the deflator on a quarterly basis. Induced taxes are taxes that change when an economy's real gross domestic product (GDP) changes. The amount of output increases. When calculating real GDP, we calculate it holding prices constant. The banks are stuck. Debtor Nation 2. My costs to push mow may be $5 per month. Election night and the following weeks could unleash a lot of pent up “animal spirits”. b. In general, calculating real GDP is done by dividing nominal GDP by the GDP deflator (R). Real GDP is calculated by dividing nominal GDP over a GDP deflator. Living in Australia and reading the local left wing rag and the comments in them, one would have thought that when Mr Trump won in 2016 that: 1. The bubble just can’t get that big. In other words, when nominal is higher than real, inflation is occurring and when real is higher than nominal, deflation is occurring. you mean local/state/fed tax REQUIREMENTS, utilities/property taxes/fees have exploded over past 10 years. Macro Topic 2.6 Real v. Nominal GDP Part 1: Check Your Understanding-Answer the questions. You gave me fame Or GDP to monetary base. I tell you one and one makes three ”. It is not such a big deal when my Netflix goes up 6.8% per year (from $16 to $18 from January 2019 to today’s $2 increase just announced). Real GDP takes into consideration adjustments for changes in inflation. I exploit you Those who voted for HRC don’t like Biden (they wanted her to run again). When it is time to vote you go to the nearest polling place which can be a place like the local school or hall, state your name and address and then they will ask if you have already voted. Hard to believe the Government numbers at this point. Nominal GDP for the entire year of 2020 will be a little over $20 trillion — unless something big and bad happens to economy in Q4 — and will still be down from nominal GDP in 2019 of $21.4 trillion. next few weeks, losing it’s lows. The old term GNE or Gross National Expenditure was more honest. a. It still would of course, have been a lot smarter to have a better run non-debt economy. Wall St. Humans are tribal. In 2019, it was $21.49 trillion. “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. © copyright 2003-2020 Even too much above that is viewed as unhealthy, e.g. 7) Right wing lobbies for gun control after violent ANTIFA groups threaten to purge America of any vestiges of former regime. No goods, services, other “soft” goods needed during COVID. 6. And not annualized, GDP jumped by a record of 7.4% from Q2, after the record 9.0% plunge in Q2 from Q1: Both the jump in Q3 and the plunge in Q2 were the sharpest moves ever in the quarterly GDP data, which began in 1947. See our, ← My Random Walk Down Junk-Bond Minefield: How I Lost 77% after Buying DNR’s Unsecured Bonds at Rock-Bottom 8 Cents on the Dollar, WeWork Forerunner IWG/Regus Restructures its Business, Unleashing Mayhem on Landlords and Investors →, US Apartment Market Splits in Two, 100 Cities: Where Rents Jumped or Dropped the Most, Are Highest or Lowest, What Took so Long? It’s a lifestyle choice, but one choice contributes $200 to GDP and one $5. If Biden is as impotent as I think he is going to be… Expect the Tom Cotton/Tucker Carlson ticket to throw us into full a unashamed Theo-Facist state. The fact “Recently, China started building a border wall on the Vietnam border to prevent Chinese from fleeing to Vietnam for jobs.” may or may not mean much. It’s a first world problem of course whether to pay or do it yourself. Without real GDP, it would be difficult to identify just from examining nominal GDP whether production is actually expanding—or it's just a factor of rising per-unit prices in the economy. in the banking sector. Not “this year.” But from end of Dec 2019 through mid-March; and from mid-June until now. But, the odds of a clear Trump win is 1/3rd. Inflation & Devaluation … OK. NDX daily : a similar PR signal !! Of Could be looking at the big short. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how: Would you like to be notified via email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? How does all this compare with China’s figures? Shenanigans. Per There is a HUGE list of reasons to vote against Trump. Unlike nominal GDP, real GDP accounts for changes in price levels and provides a more accurate figure of economic growth. Putin is thrust out as Central Asia boils over. An inflationary gap measures the difference between the actual real gross domestic product (GDP) and the GDP of an economy at full employment. 1. What we have is two tribes, both of which exhibit cult-like-groupthink, both of which are somewhat blindly confident their side “wins”. Aren’t “we” already doing that? Declare bankruptcy 6 times, don’t pay taxes, and millions in loans are forgiven. Didn’t happen in 09. What I do in an hour the standard charge is $35. I was walking only 5 minutes and I found 20$ on the ground. 6) Corporate America tries to work with new regime, finds out socialism isn’t so bad. GDP measures everything produced by all the people and companies within a country's borders. I;d say it is closely related to Nick’s point. That was another absurd “annualized” growth rate. 2. But that’s the magic of “annualized” rates. close, yet tomorrow RSI will be lower than Sept 14 RSI ==> NDX will generate a Positive Reversal signal, a medium strength (6 weeks) signal, Most of this increase in GDP was due to prices rising, not because we were producing more output. 4) Yesterday close was above Sep 23 close, but yesterday RSI was I don’t think many executives will be wearing orange jumpsuits going forward, even though I really hope you are right. (Wolf, yet again you bat 1.000!). And we faced another “annualized” figure in today’s GDP reporting: that GDP in Q3 was $18.58 trillion “annual rate” and “seasonally adjusted” and “in 2012 dollars.” These “2012 dollars” are used to adjust for inflation (loss of purchasing power).   You gave me fortune Which will cause the debt to explode along with any ability to govern the country. We all know what happens next. So I’d assume that we are going to have at 60-80% of the population both confused AND angry with a contested election. Suppose an economy begins in steady state. That is why Walmart stopped selling guns-n-ammo today (search CNBC article (“Walmart pulls…”civil unrest”). This: Consumer spending accounted for 68% of GDP in Q3. Nominal gross domestic product is a measurement of economic output that doesn't adjust for inflation. This “annualized rate” is roughly 4 times Q3 GDP expressed in 2012 dollars (adjusted for inflation in that manner). Big numbers, with big percentage increases, are a toxic mix to say the least. If fiat in general collapses (unlikely), then the debt doesn’t matter much either way. Regardless of news events, political issues, etc., between ~1945 and 2020 the 10 year moving average of US GDP growth has relentlessly moved lower from about 4.5% in 1945 to 2.1% now. This is despite Amazon guiding sharply higher. You tell me. The spectacular spectacle of an absurd creature called the “annualized” growth rate of GDP appeared again this morning, and the headlines screamed that GDP, adjusted for inflation, surged by a record of “33.1%” in Q3. The USA was goingt o immediately go into a depression and the stock market was going to crash and neither would recover. I am just not savvy enough to compute those. True or false? Not sure if it’s the proper odds though. I suspect I am not the only one who believes this “hidden yet not hidden” unhealthy inflation rate on essential goods and services can not last much longer. Required fields are marked *. Governments use both nominal and real GDP as metrics for analyzing economic growth and purchasing power over time. If the same rate of Netflix subscription premium applies over the next 10 years, it goes from $18 to $30/month, so $144/year more. There’s also the payoff for each odds. Give him an Air Force One already. The environemnt was going to look like something out of Mordor. Aggregate hours are a Department of Labor (DOL) statistic showing the total sum of hours worked by all employed people over the course of a year. When you hear reports of a country’s GDP that don’t specify the type, it's likely to be nominal GDP. Winning! There are 90 million members of the CCP and I imagine a large percentage (probably most) of Chinese buying foreign real estate are CCP members. Misc other Insurance – 87% increase in 10 years Not very likely . We don’t have ballot harvesting, throwing away ballots, and dead people voting like in the USA. Yet what becomes even more toxic is when virtually everything goes up two to three times more than income/wages. And it’s time to kill them in headline reporting. Companies & Markets I’m A positive difference in nominal minus real GDP signifies inflation and a negative difference signifies deflation. Services, Working Scholars® Bringing Tuition-Free College to the Community. 2. I’m hoping they won’t be in a better position to grab US housing RE again. If a clear Biden win, you are right. This stimulus based economy is a lot like a cyclist who is half way through the Tour-de France and his team runs out of food. Sorry, but he is one of the few US Presidents not to start a new war. If you DON’T VOTE in any election without a valid reason such as not being in the country and INFORMING the electoral commission of the fact you will get fined. 8) GDP is discontinued. Kind of like us, actually. Because GDP is one of the most important metrics for evaluating the economic activity, stability, and growth of goods and services in an economy, it is usually reviewed from two angles: nominal and real. Time moves forward regardless so I suspect it will be a few “hot spots” and somewhat a non-event. The Europe’s Dilemmas If nominal GDP was $1 million, then real GDP is calculated as $1,000,000 / 1.01, or $990,099.

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